Christian Ultimate
Disc League

First Impressions

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The playoffs are looming at the forefront of all of our minds. Only two teams still have a viable shot for first place in the league, but all but two teams can reach the top four. Seeding is everything this year— the higher you finish the season, the better your chances are in the playoffs.

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But this is the CUDL, after all. Grit, determination, and a wee bit of luck could change everything.

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So What Happened?

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Here's the order as it stands as of week eight:

 

Tugboats (7-1)

Landsharks (6-2)

Disc-iples (5-3)

Eggs and Hammers (4-4)

The Wind (3-5)

Scoobers (3-5)

HammerTime (3-5)

Knights (1-7) 

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And here's the schedule for week nine:​

 

Wind v Tugboats

Disc-iples v Eggs and Hammers

Scoobers v HammerTime

Knights v Landsharks

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So... what now?

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The Tugboats will likely take a win in week nine. However, the last few games have proven them to be entirely beatable. Despite their (7-1) record, #1 offense, and #3 defense, I am not comfortable writing off a win for the Tugboats that easily. The Tugboats have only been completing around 60% percent of their throws— not a number you want to have this late in the season. Any team that can capitalize on those countless drops will beat them. A win in week nine clinches the top spot for the Tugboats. A loss all but guarantees them the second seed.

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The Landsharks will also likely win in week nine. The #1 defense in the league faces the #8 offense, a scary proposition for the latter. The two haven't played yet this season; however, a loss for the Landsharks is unlikely all things considered. Assuming a Purple win, the Landsharks really want the Tugboats to lose in week nine. A Blue loss would seal the top spot for the Landsharks and make their playoff prospects much, much nicer. 

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The Disc-iples continued their five-game streak with a win against Gray in week eight. They face Green Eggs and Hammers in week nine, a game that they're expected to win. Green won't make it easy for them, however. It's a game that Orange will have to fight hard to win, and both teams have a good chance. However, the      Disc-iples are far enough ahead of fourth place that they'd have to lose by at least 14 points to drop to seed four to start the playoffs. Conversely, though, A purple loss and an orange win all but seal the second spot for the Disc-iples.

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The Hammers are not expected to win their week nine matchup against the Disc-iples. But at (4-4), it would be really good for them to finish the regular season with a win. Besides the top three teams, Green is the only other team that can possibly finish with a winning season. Furthermore, three different teams stand ready to take them out of seed four should Green stumble. Yellow is of particular threat; if Yellow wins and Green loses, Yellow could easily take seed four away from Green.

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Wind is perhaps under more pressure in week nine than any other team. As one of three (3-5) teams, Gray could drop to seventh place if they lose. If the conditions are right, they could advance to fourth. Further, they face the #1 Tugboats, host of the #1 offense in the league and the #3 defense. Wind's statistics, on the other hand, are not as flashy: #6 offense and #7 defense. But the Tugboats' last few showings have not been their best. The Tugboats lost to the Disc-iples three weeks ago in spectacular fashion, losing by 11 points. Since then, they've won by significantly smaller margins than they are used to. Last week, they trailed Red for the entire first half. Blue has proven themselves very beatable. Can Gray rise to the challenge?

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The Scoobers find themselves in a very interesting position— a possibly advantageous one if they play it right. If the season ended now, Yellow would be set to play the Hammers the first week of the playoffs. From experience, that's a game they know they can win. However, a loss in week nine almost certainly pits them against the Disc-iples in week ten, a week four rematch that they would like to avoid if at all possible. Thus Yellow has found themselves in a predicament: they really need to win in week nine if they want a promising playoff picture.

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HammerTime desperately needs a week nine win to save their regular season record. They started the season undefeated; they've won only one game since. Another loss in week nine would almost guarantee them a game against Purple in week ten; a win would pit them against Green. Neither scenario is favorable for the competent-but-struggling team. HammerTime played Purple once and lost by eleven points. Admittedly, Red was down at least two very good players and faced a full purple team, so a week ten matchup could be a different animal entirely. Red has played green twice so far this season, losing both times. It is worthwhile to note that HammerTime is indeed a very capable team. If they can pull off a week nine win, their end-of-season future looks remarkably bright.

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The Knights face the Landsharks on Friday. On the one hand, the statistics don't tell a very comforting tale for the Knights as they look at the quickly approaching playoffs. On the other hand, though, the Knights don't have anything to lose. They can't fall any farther in the standings— and that could be an advantage if they can get in the right mindset. It's worth noting that if they lose to the Landsharks and the Wind beats the Tugboats, Camo will play Purple two weeks in a row— a very valuable scenario for this team. The Knights will likely lose in week nine. But if they take this chance to learn from their mistakes, they could right some serious wrongs in the playoffs.  

 

Finally, a few notes:

- At this point, it is basically preferable for every team to not play Orange. Both the other top-three teams have proven themselves very beatable. Orange has beaten both other top-three teams and hasn't lost in five games.  

- Three teams are low-pressure/no-pressure in week nine: Blue, Orange, and Camo. 

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The Call

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I'm going to present a number of scenarios. Some are more likely than others.

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Most likely, in my mind:

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Tugboats beat the Wind. Not by a ton, but by enough. Maybe 5-7 points. Landsharks beat Camo. Disc-iples beat Green by a slim margin, maybe three points. Yellow beats HammerTime by 3-6 points. That scenario changes nothing in the standings except for yellow and gray's seeds. Yellow would end #5, Gray #6.

In the playoffs, Tugboats beat Camo. Landsharks beat HammerTime. Disc-iples beat Wind. Hammers beat Scoobers. At that point, I think the Tugboats will beat Green, and the Landsharks - Disc-iples game is up for grabs. Both those teams can beat the Tugboats, though the Disc-iples are much more likely to do so. In this scenario, I think the Disc-iples win CUDL2023.

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If the underdogs win a few:

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Gray beats Blue. Purple beats Camo. Orange beats Green. Red beats Yellow. Then in the playoffs...

Purple beats Camo. Tugboats beat Yellow. Orange beats Red. Gray beats Green.

In the semifinals, Purple beats Gray, Orange beats Blue. 

In this picture, Purple wins CUDL2023.

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Crazy:

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Week nine: Gray beats Blue. Camo beats Purple. Orange beats Green. Red beats Yellow.

Playoffs week one: Blue beats Camo. Orange beats Yellow. Purple beats Red. Gray beats Green.

Semifinals: At this point, I wouldn't pick anyone to win in this picture. Too many things were crazy already. Most likely, it would be Orange or Purple. But Gray already beat Blue twice in this scenario, so you never know.

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Important note: in none of these scenarios did the Tugboats win. However, that is a distinct possibility, especially if the Disc-iples lose in week nine. 

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Final Whistle

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At this point, I think the real championship contenders are the top three teams. Outside of that, it's going to take a fair amount of luck to make a championship win happen. But who knows? This is CUDL, after all. No matter who takes this year's trophy home, it's going to take a lot of hard work and skill to get them there.

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Best of luck to everyone!